With the presidential election approaching, high interest rates and international tensions, the Brazilian stock market faces an environment of uncertainty. Leading financial research firms have updated their recommendations for September, singling out Petrobras (PETR4) as the top pick among investors.
Companies standing out in investment portfolios
Petrobras tops the ranking of picks from BTG Pactual, BB Investimentos, Safra, Ágora Investimentos, Genial and Andbank, followed closely by Gerdau (GGBR4) and Vale (VALE3). Other names that appear frequently in the recommendations are Axia Energia (AXIA3), Embraer (EMBJ3), Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) and Vibra Energia (VBBR3).
The makeup of the portfolios reveals a preference for sectors tied to energy, commodities and companies seen as more resilient, seeking to balance domestic opportunities with protection against likely market volatility.
Details of the picks and rationale
Comparing the six portfolios, Petrobras stands alone at the top of the picks, with Gerdau and Vale tied for second place. Other companies with two recommendations include BB Seguridade (BBSE3), BTG Pactual (BPAC11), Caixa Seguridade (CXSE3), Copel (CPLE3), Direcional (DIRR3), Eneva (ENEV3), Rede D’Or (RDOR3) and Sabesp (SBSP3).
In addition to having the most picks, Petrobras also carries the largest individual weight in BTG Pactual’s 10SIM portfolio, at 15%. The bank highlights the balance between the company’s operating performance and its ability to benefit from high fuel prices, projects a dividend yield of about 9% for 2027 and maintains a buy recommendation on PETR4.
Gerdau and Vale, with four picks each, are vying for second place. Steelmaker Gerdau appears in the portfolios of BTG, BB Investimentos, Safra and Genial. BTG notes that roughly 75% of the company’s Ebitda is tied to the U.S. market, which can act as a currency hedge amid electoral uncertainty in Brazil. The favorable earnings momentum and attractive valuation of the shares are also highlighted.
Vale appears in the selections of BB Investimentos, Safra, Ágora and Andbank. According to Andbank, second-quarter performance beat estimates thanks to higher iron ore and nickel sales, as well as operating efficiency. The firm also points to the miner’s cash generation, the announcement of US$ 1.7 billion in dividends and interest on equity, and a new share buyback program.
Energy sector and strategies for volatility
Companies tied to energy and utilities feature prominently in the September recommendations. In addition to Petrobras, the list includes Vibra, Axia, Eneva, Copel, CPFL (CPFE3), Equatorial (EQTL3), Sabesp and Isa Energia (ISAE4). At BTG, half of the 10SIM portfolio is concentrated in utilities, infrastructure and companies with stable cash flows. The portfolio also includes Motiva (MOTV3) and Rede D’Or.
Embraer and Gerdau are seen as currency-exposure plays, accounting for about 20% of the portfolio. The strategy aims to prepare investments for different scenarios: a fiscal improvement and lower long-term interest rates would favor companies sensitive to those conditions, while a deteriorating environment could be offset by exposure to the dollar and to Petrobras.
At Andbank, the September Carteira Meta portfolio includes BB Seguridade, Bradesco (BBDC4), Copel, CPFL, Embraer, Itaú, Itaúsa (ITSA4), Rede D’Or, Suzano (SUZB3) and Vale, all equally weighted at 10%. The portfolio has an estimated upside potential of 23.57%. Among these, Suzano leads in individual upside, at 42.24%, followed by Rede D’Or (38.16%) and Bradesco (31.70%).
Election effects and market impact
The presidential election, with candidates now set, is expected to increase market volatility, according to Andbank, which expects the polls to have a growing impact through election day. The backdrop also includes high domestic inflation and interest rates, monetary policy decisions in the United States and tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Both Safra and BTG reinforced strategies aimed at protecting portfolios against electoral uncertainty and risks to domestic credit. BTG is betting on a balance between stocks that benefit from falling interest rates and those with greater currency exposure.
In short, the consensus among research firms points to Petrobras as the leading recommendation for September, with Gerdau and Vale sharing second place. The choices reflect a search for balance between upside potential and protection against the volatility expected for the month.
