The federal government sent the 2027 budget proposal to the National Congress, covering the first year of the new presidential term. The minimum wage is expected to be set at R$ 1,741, an increase of R$ 120 from the current R$ 1,621, representing a rise of 7.4%. The increase would take effect in January, showing up in the February payment. The final amount will depend on November’s National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which will be released in December.
According to data from the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese), the minimum wage serves as a benchmark for 61.9 million Brazilians. Experts warn that real increases above inflation have a significant impact on social security and welfare spending, suggesting that the government return to the previous model, without increases above inflation, to better control public spending.
Fiscal target and expected surplus
The budget proposal sets a fiscal surplus target of R$ 73.2 billion for 2027. However, the economic team projects a positive result of R$ 18.6 billion, or 0.13% of GDP, because it does not fully account for deductions related to court-ordered debt payments (precatórios). If this estimate is confirmed, it will be the first positive fiscal result since 2022, the last year of the previous administration.
Reports from the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) indicate that stabilizing public debt would require an annual primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP. Debt has already risen more than 10 percentage points under the current government, reaching its highest level since the pandemic. Controlling its growth is seen as essential to sustainably reducing interest rates, which remain high by international standards.
Limits for civil servants and congressional earmarks
The 2027 budget limits funds for civil servant raises, a measure tied to a fiscal trigger approved by Congress that caps spending in the event of a deficit. Finance Minister Dario Durigan said that, under this rule, it will not be possible to grant civil servants raises above inflation next year.
For congressional earmarks, the government allocated R$ 44.8 billion in the budget bill. This amount does not include committee earmarks, whose allocation will be decided by Congress through cuts in other areas. Congressional earmarks are funds that deputies and senators direct to programs and projects in their states, consuming part of the government’s discretionary spending budget.
Social benefits and Bolsa Família
No adjustment is planned for Bolsa Família benefit amounts in 2027. Since the program was relaunched in March 2023, there have been no increases. Estimated spending on the program next year is R$ 157.1 billion, less than projected for 2026 and 2025.
Those entitled to the benefit have a monthly per capita income of up to R$ 218 and keep the Cadastro Único (the federal social registry) up to date for all family members.
