The Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a body linked to the Federal Senate, released a report on Thursday (23rd) indicating a significant deterioration in the financial health of a substantial group of federal state-owned companies, including both those dependent on and those independent of the Treasury.
The document points out that this deterioration is evidenced by results such as negative net equity, operating cash flow deficits and negative operating margins at companies such as Codevasf, Correios, Emgepron and Infraero.
Fiscal risks rise for the federal government
The IFI highlights that this context raises fiscal risk for the National Treasury. This is due both to the possible need for capital injections and supplementary budget allocations for dependent state-owned companies and to the reduced ability of non-dependent companies to pay dividends.
The report clarifies that it does not intend to address the question of privatizing these companies, since that issue involves a complex analysis that goes beyond financial aspects, also encompassing the social returns expected from these companies under state control.
Budget forecasts and recent performance of state-owned companies
According to the 2027 Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) bill, sent to Congress in April, the Executive acknowledges that federal state-owned companies have been in deficit since 2023 and are expected to remain so until 2030. A deficit means total expenses exceed the revenue generated.
Among dependent state-owned companies, the IFI found that companies such as Codevasf, CBTU, Embrapa, HCPA and EBSERH show financial trajectories that diverge from those seen before 2018, with negative indicators for net equity, operating cash flow and cash sufficiency.
Among non-dependent state-owned companies, the indicators point to varied but equally worrying weaknesses, especially regarding operating margin, exposure to financial income and earnings quality.
Emblematic cases: Correios and measures adopted
Correios stands out for its worsening financial shortfall, which tripled in 2025 to R$ 8.5 billion. The government acknowledges the possibility that this situation may continue or even worsen, despite the restructuring plan underway.
To address this deficit, the state-owned postal company signed a R$ 12 billion loan with a consortium of banks in December 2025, guaranteed by the National Treasury. In February, the National Monetary Council allowed Correios to raise up to an additional R$ 8 billion in loans backed by federal guarantees.
In May, the government authorized the company to expand its commercial activities, including selling insurance and capitalization bonds and operating in the telephony market, through agreements with financial institutions.
Reasons for the deterioration at Correios
The IFI links Correios’ delicate situation to internal and external factors that affected its financial performance, although the report does not detail all the specific elements that contributed to this picture.
