Since July 22, 2026, the United States has applied extra 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian products, mainly affecting sectors that rely heavily on that market. Economists consulted say that, although some companies are under pressure to find new buyers quickly, there is no risk of a widespread economic crisis in Brazil.
Smaller US share of Brazilian exports
The current context differs from that of 20 years ago, when the US accounted for about 19% of Brazilian exports. In 2025, that share fell to 12%, reaching 9.4% in the first half of 2026, according to Comexstat data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). Over the same period, China reaffirmed its position as Brazil‘s largest buyer, with more than 30% of foreign sales.
The challenge for the country is not only the loss of the American market, but the ability to diversify destinations without replacing one dependency with another, while also increasing the competitiveness of domestic industry.
Experts highlight changes in Brazil’s trade profile
According to Leonardo Paz, a researcher at Fundação Getulio Vargas, China’s rise as Brazil’s main trading partner since 2009 made the smaller US share predictable. Brazil took advantage of the growth of the Chinese economy and its demand for agricultural and mineral commodities. According to Crivelaro, the country reaches the current situation with a more diversified export basket, with a growing presence in Asian markets and other emerging economies.
According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat, 57% of Brazilian exports to the US are not subject to the new tariffs. The total number of directly affected companies is 2,400, of which 74% already export to other countries. Even so, diversification does not completely eliminate the impact of losing the American market.
Difficulties in redirecting exports
Roberto Dumas, a professor at Insper, explains that commodities are easier to redirect because they are traded in a globally standardized way. Manufactured goods such as footwear, on the other hand, face more barriers because they are tailored to specific markets. An estimated 18% of Brazilian exports are hurt by the tariffs, and opening new markets can take 12 to 36 months, involving negotiations, certifications and logistical adjustments.
Markets with potential to absorb more Brazilian exports include India, Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore), the Middle East and some African economies such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt.
Recent results and outlook
In 2025, Brazil posted a record US$ 348.7 billion (R$ 1.774 trillion) in exports, with more than 40 countries recording all-time-high purchase volumes. Highlights include India, Canada, Turkey, Paraguay, Uruguay, Switzerland, Pakistan and Norway. Sales to China, the European Union and Argentina grew 6%, 3.2% and 31.4%, respectively, driven by the automotive sector.
For Dumas, the goal is not to replace the US, but to keep it as an important partner while expanding into other markets. On the other hand, Fabrizio Panzini, of Amcham Brasil, notes that exports to the US are mostly industrial goods, while commodities dominate shipments to other destinations, making it difficult to directly replace American sales.
Exporters of products such as beef and coffee are seeking to expand sales to other countries, while sectors such as machinery, equipment, wood, furniture, ceramics and footwear face greater challenges in redirecting their exports due to market specificities and required certifications.
The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) believes the surcharge worsens an already difficult situation for sales to the American market and increases uncertainty for Brazilian and American companies.
Domestic competitiveness is a decisive factor
Experts agree that opening new trade frontiers depends more on Brazil’s internal ability to improve competitiveness than on the tariff issue alone. Leonardo Paz advocates industrial policies focused on innovation and higher productivity to strengthen the country’s international presence.
